Germany’s $14 Billion Defense Plan to Deter Russia

BERLIN — The German government expects it will need almost €12 billion — roughly $14 billion — to build a new arsenal of long-range weapons aimed at deterring Russia, according to defense ministry documents seen by POLITICO.

The weapons would give German forces the ability to hit military targets hundreds or even thousands of kilometers behind the front — including command centers, airfields, missile launchers, and supply hubs.

Internal documents call the effort a top priority for both Germany and NATO. They say the goal is to allow German forces to strike far into the rear area of an adversary and maintain the ability to respond with conventional weapons below the nuclear threshold.

The plan has four parts, with the first weapons due as early as next year and the most advanced systems planned for the middle of the next decade. Internal ministry talking points say “almost €12 billion” in budget funds are expected to be needed for the buildup.

The money has not yet been approved. Another ministry document states that the costs have been estimated and submitted as part of the government’s budget planning process.

Germany’s defense ministry declined to comment on the figure or individual programs. “The measures you refer to are generally subject to the approval of the German Bundestag,” a ministry spokesperson told POLITICO. The ministry could only comment after parliament had considered them, the spokesperson added.

The fastest part of the plan involves a new low-cost cruise missile that Germany aims to field by 2027. POLITICO reported in June that the defense ministry was looking at missiles from U.S.-Israeli startup Covenant Industries and Ukrainian-linked companies as it searched for weapons that could be mass-produced and service-ready quickly.

The new documents indicate that effort has advanced further. Germany is currently in contract talks with two suppliers, with the aim of receiving missiles for qualification before year-end. The documents name three candidates: Covenant’s Anthem, the BARS missile from an unnamed Ukrainian company, and Flamingo from Ukrainian company Fire Point.

In preparation for mass production, the German defense ministry is also drafting framework contracts. The documents describe the low-cost missile as a cost-efficient and, above all, mass-producible weapon usable alongside much more expensive missiles.

This follows a lesson Berlin asserts it has learned from the war in Ukraine. When POLITICO first reported on the low-cost missile program in June, the defense ministry stated that strikes against important targets far behind enemy lines had become indispensable for credible deterrence.

During that time, the ministry emphasized that “cost-effective systems can overwhelm enemy air defenses through mass attacks and therefore have high operational value.”

The second part of the plan is American. Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced in early July that Germany has reached an agreement with the U.S. government during the NATO summit in Ankara to acquire American Tomahawk cruise missiles and station them in Germany.

“We are closing an important strategic gap in our defense,” Merz stated, adding that Germany would concurrently develop its own European systems.

Germany’s internal target is to achieve an initial Typhon and Tomahawk capability by the end of the decade. This acquisition would provide Berlin with a proven long-range weapon while European alternatives are still under development.

The final two components of the plan are being developed in collaboration with Britain. Both countries are working on a new high-end cruise missile and a hypersonic glide weapon under last year’s Trinity House Agreement, with documents indicating a targeted initial capability by the middle of the next decade.

Germany and the UK have publicly committed to ensuring their new long-range weapons can reach targets over 2,000 kilometers away. The hypersonic project encompasses the majority of the funding outlined in Germany’s current estimate.

One internal document allocates nearly €9 billion toward the development and procurement of the hypersonic weapon, alongside €182 million for its maintenance. Another €1.8 billion is budgeted for cruise missile development and procurement, plus €97 million for maintenance. These figures total around €11 billion, which is consistent with separate ministry figures that state the overall required funding is nearly €12 billion.

This missile strategy marks a significant shift for Germany. Rather than waiting for a single new European missile, Berlin is opting for a mix of weapons: cheaper missiles produced en masse, readily available American Tomahawks, and more advanced European options to follow.

The initiative is occurring as military leaders warn that Russia could potentially attack NATO territory by the decade’s end. Berlin aims to ensure that if deterrence fails, Russian forces would not find refuge simply due to their distance from the front.