Dive into the NASCAR Chase playoffs as we break down each of the 16 drivers, including Denny Hamlin’s chances for his first championship.
Is it finally Denny Hamlin’s year? The best driver never to win a championship enters the Chase as the top seed — with a playoff format that should be more to his liking. Ryan Preece’s surprise win Saturday night vaulted him into the 16th and final position for NASCAR’s playoffs after the regular-season finale at Daytona International Speedway.
Those playoffs will look a little different this year. Gone is the elimination-round format of the past decade, which featured three three-race rounds before a championship race, and any race win automatically advancing a driver to the next round. NASCAR has now returned to its “Chase” system — a 10-race playoff, with the driver with the most points across all races crowned champion.
Here’s a look at the 16-driver field for the Chase, along with best- and worst-case scenarios for each.
Denny Hamlin
Wins: 4 (Las Vegas, Nashville, Michigan, Pocono)
Best career championship finish: 2nd (2010, 2025)
Best-case scenario: It’s finally, finally Hamlin’s year. The best driver to never win a championship has announced 2027 will be his last full-time season, yet he’s clearly still atop his game. Hamlin won the regular-season championship and is No. 1 in top-fives, top-10s, laps led and average finish entering the Chase. The Chase tracks largely play to his strengths. If all goes well and he avoids the disasters that have often plagued him in the final races, we might finally see Hamlin as a NASCAR Cup Series champion.
Worst-case scenario: Anything but a championship. Even a multi-win Chase and second-place points finish would be devastating for Hamlin, who has the missing championship on his career resume and can no longer point to the chaotic elimination format as the reason he has yet to win.
Ryan Blaney
Wins: 3 (Phoenix, Atlanta 2, New Hampshire)
Best career championship finish: First (2023)
Best-case scenario: Blaney and the No. 12 team navigate the Chase format by maximizing their strengths while avoiding pitfalls, leading to a potential second championship.
Worst-case scenario: If Blaney’s team struggles to overcome the powerful Toyotas, mistakes by the pit crew could cost valuable positions.
Tyler Reddick
Wins: Five (Daytona 500, Atlanta 1, Circuit of the Americas, Darlington, Kansas)
Best career championship finish: Fourth (2024)
Best-case scenario: Reddick regains his first-half form to race for his first championship, building on his strong early-season statistics.
Worst-case scenario: Continuing troubles in the second half of the season could impede his chances as he has struggled to secure top finishes.
Christopher Bell
Best career championship finish: Third (2025)
Best-case scenario: Bell is expected to shine, with finishes that could have easily been wins pushing him closer to a championship.
Worst-case scenario: With a low average finish this season, Bell risks ending up seventh or eighth in points without improvements.
Chase Briscoe
Best-case scenario: With favorable tracks ahead, Briscoe can capitalize and compete closely with Hamlin for the title.
Worst-case scenario: A failure to elevate his performance could keep him out of the championship picture.
Kyle Larson
Best-case scenario: Larson could replicate Tony Stewart’s 2011 Chase run, achieving impressive victories in critical races.
Worst-case scenario: Consistent mistakes throughout the season may prevent any victories.
Joey Logano
Best-case scenario: Logano finds momentum and manages to achieve another title while overcoming his team’s previous struggles.
Worst-case scenario: If their speed on intermediate tracks falters, he may not be competitive.
Brad Keselowski
Best career championship finish: 10th (2022)
Best-case scenario: A strong performance could secure him ideal finishing spots, possibly leading to a top-10 point finish.
Worst-case scenario: A decline in performance could hinder his ability to compete.
Others
Drivers like Wallace, Cindric, and Preece aim to maximize their strategies over this challenging playoff stretch, seeking to solidify their standings in the Chase.
